McDonald, author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” is worth listening to because he has made several good trading calls on gold in the past few years.
Five gold-mining stocks I mention at the end of this column might advance even more, compared with the tamer blend of stocks inside the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. But stocks are riskier than ETFs because they can fall more, too.
To see why gold and gold miners will move up from here, you need to know two important concepts:
. When the Fed raises rates, the dollar is driven higher because foreign investors are drawn to U.S. assets. They’re chasing higher interest rates and the more robust economic conditions that causes the Fed to hike rates. They have to buy greenbacks, which pushes the dollar higher. In contrast, the dollar is weakened when the Fed signals it will delay rate hikes. That’s where we are now.
. The dollar and gold have a natural inverse relationship. Dollar down, gold up.
McDonald is bearish on the dollar because of trends blocking the Fed from raising rates, obstacles readily acknowledged by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen in the press conference following Thursday’s FOMC meeting. During that meeting, the committee decided to hold off on raising rates, as McDonald predicted.
Reason 1: The Fed has a dollar problem
In anticipation of rising U.S. interest rates, investors have driven the dollar much higher. The greenback rose 25% from July 2014 through April of this year, and it is still lofty.
That creates enormous headaches for the Federal Reserve. It hurts U.S. growth because exports from U.S. companies become more expensive. It also makes imports cheaper.
A strong dollar also damages emerging-market economies since many of them make money by selling commodities, which get hurt by a strong dollar. This is also bad news for the Fed. “The dollar has been a global wrecking ball,” says McDonald. “My theory is the Fed is terrified of the dollar’s move, and they have to talk the dollar down to $85 to put out this fire. That’s really good for gold.” That $85 forecast refers to the U.S. Dollar Index.
Reason 2: The Fed has a broader mandate now
Technically, the Fed is responsible for two things: Full unemployment and reasonably low inflation. In today’s interconnected world, though, the Fed has more things to worry about:
A slowdown in China? Check. Its spills over into other emerging markets and the U.S., bringing down our economy. “Global weakness and the dollar wrecking ball have hurt the U.S. economy. And that is changing Fed policy to the benefit of gold miners,” says McDonald.
Stock market selloffs like the one we just saw? Check. Selloffs are a downer for the economy. People feel less wealthy and more fearful. Both weigh on exuberance and economic growth.
In Yellen-speak, the Fed has lots of “crosscurrents” to consider. “We need to put it all together in a picture,” she said during the press conference. The big picture is that there are too many problems to raise rates. Weak dollar, strong gold.
Reason 3: The Fed just got a lot more dovish
This week we learned that FOMC members are a lot less bullish on U.S. growth and inflation, thanks to the threat of a global slowdown and the recent market turmoil. Here are three main pieces of evidence:
The number of FOMC members expecting a Fed rate hike in 2016 slipped to 13 from 15 out of 17.
The Fed pushed out the time frame for targeted 2% inflation to 2018, from 2017 projected last June, a significant change. “Inflation will remain quite low in the coming months,” said Yellen.
The FOMC forecast for year-end 2016 interest rates slipped to 1.375% from 1.625% in June. “That is a big shift,” says McDonald.
We also learned that one FOMC member even advocates negative interest rates to spur growth, which would be a very unusual Fed policy. It’s an alarming point of view. Yellen said in the press conference the FOMC didn’t seriously entertain that suggestion. But the fact that it was even brought up is a bit troubling. Yellen also made it clear that even after the first rate hike — whenever it happens — monetary policy will remain quite accommodative.
Reason 4: The Fed has an election problem
Consensus forecasts have shifted to a Fed rate hike in December. But that’s not going to happen for at least two reasons.
First, Fed rate hikes can slow the economy with six-month lag. Does Yellen, appointed by President Barack Obama, really want to risk slowing the economy during the summer of 2016, thereby hurting the prospects of the Democratic presidential candidate? The Fed is supposedly apolitical. But let’s be honest, it’s not.
Next, raising rates during the holiday season just looks Grinchy.
Finally, by mid-December, lots of investors will have locked down accounts for the year, drying up liquidity. Does the Fed really want to do something as disruptive as raising rates during a time of limited liquidity, which can heighten volatility? Take a wild guess.
Reason 5: Being long the dollar is a crowded trade
By now, every Wall Street money manager and her uncle has piled into the long dollar trade. “There are a lot of people on the wrong side of the trade, and that means it will take weeks to unwind,” says McDonald. Last March, when investors realized the Fed was pushing back the timing on rate hikes, the dollar took a dive and stayed weak through May.
In short, so many people are long the dollar, there could be a sustained move down in the greenback, as these punters back away from the trade. That means there may be a sustained up move in gold.
Stocks to consider, and a warning
Besides the GDX, five gold miners to consider as trades on this theme are: Barrick Gold Corp. ABX, -0.30% Yamana Gold Inc. AUY, +1.71% Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM, +0.16% AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AU, +0.24% and Goldcorp Inc. GG, -0.67% (GG). Those look cheap and relatively safe, because they all are rated five or four stars by analysts at Morningstar. If you do go long gold and gold miners, remember: Don’t get greedy. This is not a Warren Buffett-style buy-and-hold trade. Sooner or later, investors will inevitably start worrying about Fed rate hikes again.
That will strengthen the dollar and hurt gold and gold miners.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who publishes the stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist group, and he attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.
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Five gold-mining stocks I mention at the end of this column might advance even more, compared with the tamer blend of stocks inside the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. But stocks are riskier than ETFs because they can fall more, too.
To see why gold and gold miners will move up from here, you need to know two important concepts:
. When the Fed raises rates, the dollar is driven higher because foreign investors are drawn to U.S. assets. They’re chasing higher interest rates and the more robust economic conditions that causes the Fed to hike rates. They have to buy greenbacks, which pushes the dollar higher. In contrast, the dollar is weakened when the Fed signals it will delay rate hikes. That’s where we are now.
. The dollar and gold have a natural inverse relationship. Dollar down, gold up.
McDonald is bearish on the dollar because of trends blocking the Fed from raising rates, obstacles readily acknowledged by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen in the press conference following Thursday’s FOMC meeting. During that meeting, the committee decided to hold off on raising rates, as McDonald predicted.
Reason 1: The Fed has a dollar problem
In anticipation of rising U.S. interest rates, investors have driven the dollar much higher. The greenback rose 25% from July 2014 through April of this year, and it is still lofty.
That creates enormous headaches for the Federal Reserve. It hurts U.S. growth because exports from U.S. companies become more expensive. It also makes imports cheaper.
A strong dollar also damages emerging-market economies since many of them make money by selling commodities, which get hurt by a strong dollar. This is also bad news for the Fed. “The dollar has been a global wrecking ball,” says McDonald. “My theory is the Fed is terrified of the dollar’s move, and they have to talk the dollar down to $85 to put out this fire. That’s really good for gold.” That $85 forecast refers to the U.S. Dollar Index.
Reason 2: The Fed has a broader mandate now
Technically, the Fed is responsible for two things: Full unemployment and reasonably low inflation. In today’s interconnected world, though, the Fed has more things to worry about:
A slowdown in China? Check. Its spills over into other emerging markets and the U.S., bringing down our economy. “Global weakness and the dollar wrecking ball have hurt the U.S. economy. And that is changing Fed policy to the benefit of gold miners,” says McDonald.
Stock market selloffs like the one we just saw? Check. Selloffs are a downer for the economy. People feel less wealthy and more fearful. Both weigh on exuberance and economic growth.
In Yellen-speak, the Fed has lots of “crosscurrents” to consider. “We need to put it all together in a picture,” she said during the press conference. The big picture is that there are too many problems to raise rates. Weak dollar, strong gold.
Reason 3: The Fed just got a lot more dovish
This week we learned that FOMC members are a lot less bullish on U.S. growth and inflation, thanks to the threat of a global slowdown and the recent market turmoil. Here are three main pieces of evidence:
The number of FOMC members expecting a Fed rate hike in 2016 slipped to 13 from 15 out of 17.
The Fed pushed out the time frame for targeted 2% inflation to 2018, from 2017 projected last June, a significant change. “Inflation will remain quite low in the coming months,” said Yellen.
The FOMC forecast for year-end 2016 interest rates slipped to 1.375% from 1.625% in June. “That is a big shift,” says McDonald.
We also learned that one FOMC member even advocates negative interest rates to spur growth, which would be a very unusual Fed policy. It’s an alarming point of view. Yellen said in the press conference the FOMC didn’t seriously entertain that suggestion. But the fact that it was even brought up is a bit troubling. Yellen also made it clear that even after the first rate hike — whenever it happens — monetary policy will remain quite accommodative.
Reason 4: The Fed has an election problem
Consensus forecasts have shifted to a Fed rate hike in December. But that’s not going to happen for at least two reasons.
First, Fed rate hikes can slow the economy with six-month lag. Does Yellen, appointed by President Barack Obama, really want to risk slowing the economy during the summer of 2016, thereby hurting the prospects of the Democratic presidential candidate? The Fed is supposedly apolitical. But let’s be honest, it’s not.
Next, raising rates during the holiday season just looks Grinchy.
Finally, by mid-December, lots of investors will have locked down accounts for the year, drying up liquidity. Does the Fed really want to do something as disruptive as raising rates during a time of limited liquidity, which can heighten volatility? Take a wild guess.
Reason 5: Being long the dollar is a crowded trade
By now, every Wall Street money manager and her uncle has piled into the long dollar trade. “There are a lot of people on the wrong side of the trade, and that means it will take weeks to unwind,” says McDonald. Last March, when investors realized the Fed was pushing back the timing on rate hikes, the dollar took a dive and stayed weak through May.
In short, so many people are long the dollar, there could be a sustained move down in the greenback, as these punters back away from the trade. That means there may be a sustained up move in gold.
Stocks to consider, and a warning
Besides the GDX, five gold miners to consider as trades on this theme are: Barrick Gold Corp. ABX, -0.30% Yamana Gold Inc. AUY, +1.71% Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM, +0.16% AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AU, +0.24% and Goldcorp Inc. GG, -0.67% (GG). Those look cheap and relatively safe, because they all are rated five or four stars by analysts at Morningstar. If you do go long gold and gold miners, remember: Don’t get greedy. This is not a Warren Buffett-style buy-and-hold trade. Sooner or later, investors will inevitably start worrying about Fed rate hikes again.
That will strengthen the dollar and hurt gold and gold miners.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush had no positions in any stocks mentioned in this column. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who publishes the stock newsletter Brush Up on Stocks. Brush has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist group, and he attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program.
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