Monday, September 21, 2015

Gold prices are set to jump, this pattern suggests - MarketWatch

Gold prices are set to jump, this pattern suggests - MarketWatch: "“The next few weeks will tell the tale of how the market really views the Fed. If Macro Man’s views on the impact of Fed uncertainty are correct, then risky assets should struggle,” he said. “Policy error normally gets punished in one form or another, sooner or later. The conundrum this time around is that the punishment (lower risky asset prices) will only perpetuate the error.”

Of course, when risk assets start to fade, gold perks right up. Add in a technical signal that screams for more whipsaw trading action, and the safe havens start to look rather inviting. See both “the chart” and “the call” for some wonky reasons to be cautious."



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Sunday, September 20, 2015

Top trades: Netflix & Alibaba

Fade the gold bounce: Traders

"Anyone who thinks investing is easy must be a first-level thinker..."

Excerpts from yet another insightful memo from Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. The full memo can be accessed here.

Remember your goal in investing isn’t to earn average returns; you want to do better than average.



Thus your thinking has to be better than that of others – both more powerful and at a higher level. Since others may be smart, well-informed and highly computerized, you must find an edge they don’t have.



You must think of something they haven’t thought of, see things they miss, or bring insight they don’t possess. You have to react differently and behave differently. In short, being right may be a necessary condition for investment success, but it won’t be sufficient. You must be more right than others . . . which by definition means your thinking has to be different. . . .



For your performance to diverge from the norm, your expectations – and thus your portfolio – have to diverge from the norm, and you have to be more right than the consensus. Different and better: that’s a pretty good description of second-level thinking.



Second-level thinking is what immediately pops into my mind when I think about Charlie’s observation.



And it’s a good general heading under which to discuss the great many things that make superior investing a challenge. In short, to borrow from Charlie, anyone who thinks it’s easy must be a first-level thinker. Let me use some simple examples from the book to illustrate the difference.



* First-level thinking says, “It’s a good company; let’s buy the stock.” Second-level thinking says, “It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not.©So the stock’s overrated and overpriced; let’s sell.”



* First-level thinking says, “The outlook calls for low growth and rising inflation. Let’s dump our stocks.” Second-level thinking says, “The outlook stinks, but everyone else is selling in panic. Buy!”



* First-level thinking says, “I think the company’s earnings will fall; sell.” Second-level thinking says, “I think the company’s earnings will fall far less than people expect, and the pleasant surprise will lift the stock; buy.”



First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in, “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.”



Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted. The second-level thinker takes many things into account:



* What is the range of likely future outcomes?

* Which outcome do I think will occur?

* What’s the probability I’m right?

* What does the consensus think?

* How does my expectation differ from the consensus?



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Gold not so ... golden

Here's the best advice for commodity traders

Here's the best advice for commodity traders

Here's the best advice for commodity traders: ""



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A glittery future for gold: HSBC

Earnings to disappoint?

Oil Speculators Most Bullish in Two Months as OPEC Calls for $80 - Bloomberg Business

Oil Speculators Most Bullish in Two Months as OPEC Calls for $80 - Bloomberg Business: "“The market’s not as oversupplied as we think it is,” David Pursell, a managing director at investment bank Tudor Pickering Holt

5 Reasons Warren Buffett Would Not Invest In Alibaba - Forbes

5 Reasons Warren Buffett Would Not Invest In Alibaba - Forbes:



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Saturday, September 19, 2015

PayPal.Me Launched By PayPal Could Make Things Tough For Facebook Payment and Google Wallet - The REM

PayPal.Me Launched By PayPal Could Make Things Tough For Facebook Payment and Google Wallet - The REM: "In order to use PayPal.me, a user must go to the page of PayPal.Me and, post which he should provide his login credentials.

You would then be able to put forth a custom URL, that would be simple for you to remember.

Anyone who you share this link with, will be able to receive the cash you send across.

This would be a welcome change as the user now no longer has to login to the main site through the mobile app or website. Also, previously, the sender had to know the email id of the recipient.

Asides, users would be able to send forth email, text or even an instant message.

No charges have been declared for the users who are sending money.

Users must possess a debit card. However, the businessmen must pay 2.9% of the total transaction amount including $0.30 per transaction.

This has put the Facebook Payment and Google Wallet into jeopardy.

Google Wallet is now no longer used by most applications and Android users also seem to be dissatisfied with the service.

It will soon be replaced by Android Pay, that resembles Apple Pay in a lot of ways.

Facebook Payment also came into existence at the same time as Google Wallet – May 2011.

In this case, in order to make the payment, the user had to key in a specific amount to pay, through which the amount would be sent in a P2P method with proper authentication done.

However, Facebook payments can only be used by individuals and no companies."



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Paypal eyes China's cross-border e-commerce B2B2C market|WCT

Paypal eyes China's cross-border e-commerce B2B2C market|WCT: "Cross-border payment giant Paypal will introduce a cross-border e-commerce resolution for China's business to business to consumer (B2B2C) clients in mid-September, showing its determination to attract China's consumer-end users, the China Industry News reports.

The cross-border e-commerce market has seen explosive growth in recent years but most international giants after entering the mainland China market typically face strong opposition from domestic rivals with strong government backing and fail to stay the course. Paypal is hardly an exception, observing current market conditions, the report said.

In the first quarter, China's third-party mobile payment market reached a trading scale of 2.83 trillion yuan (US$444 billion), up 5.18% from a quarter earlier, with Alipay and TenPay dominating the market with a 90% market share, while the remaining 260-plus other third-party platforms fighting over the remaining 10%, according to Analysys International statistics. Alipay alone accounted for about 80%, said Zhang Anyuan, editor of Iyiou.com.

As domestic giants continue to dominate the third-party payment market, it won't be easy for Paypal to make headway, experts said. The nation's payment market will continue to be a battleground between Alibaba and Tencent, they said.

Mainland China consumers have just become accustomed to online payments being handled by Alipay and TenPay and may not even be willing to consider Paypal an option, Zhang said.

After Paypal split from eBay and became listed independently on the Nasdaq on July 20, it has increased the chances of Paypal cooperating with Alibaba or its leading competitor Jingdong Mall (JD.com).

In July, Alibaba founder Jack Ma invested US$600 million in India's version of Alipay, Paytm, with many seeing this as a means for Alibaba to combat Paypal overseas, making cooperation even more unlikely.

Third-party payment services need a special license granted by China's central bank and this may prove the greatest obstacle if Paypal intends to enter China. Paypal submitted its application as far back as 2011 but it has yet to be approved.

Since entering the Chinese market is generally pretty difficult, Paypal has zeroed in on the cross-border e-commerce market, hoping to use the short-cut curve to achieve a breakthrough.

The cross-border e-commerce market has seen fast expansion. In 2014, the country's e-commerce market reached 13.4 trillion yuan (US$2.1 trillion), up 31.4% from a year earlier. Paypal has focused on the huge market, especially as it has the advantage of using the US dollar for payments, while Alipay relies on the renminbi, which is restricted as it is not a fully international currency.

Paypal currently operates in 203 countries or regions in the world, with 2014 transactions reaching US$235 billion. It also claims more than 160 million active users among independent digital-payment service providers."



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Brace for the worst week of the year - MarketWatch

Brace for the worst week of the year - MarketWatch:



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Occam’s razor says the stock market is in a downtrend - MarketWatch

Occam’s razor says the stock market is in a downtrend - MarketWatch: "Occam’s razor: The S&P 500 abandoned its long-term uptrend in late August, meaning it is now in a downtrend.

Occam’s razor is the philosophical principle that suggests, all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be the right one."

One of the most elementary trading maxims on Wall Street is “the trend is your friend.” That’s basically what all the short-term technical patterns, economic data and earnings reports are used for, to determine which direction the longer-term trend is heading, and whether it’s about to change.

Once that trend is determined, a tenet of the century-old Dow Theory of market analysis says it is assumed to remain in effect, until it gives definite signals that it has reversed, according to the Market Technicians Associations knowledge base. In other words, the trend is your friend, until it isn’t.



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REITS: Dividend yield and spread suggests sector is attractive post sell-down

REITS: Dividend yield and spread suggests sector is attractive post sell-down:



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Three Things you should know about Shangri-La Asia | The Motley Fool Singapore

Three Things you should know about Shangri-La Asia | The Motley Fool Singapore: "One of my favourite hotels in Singapore is definitely the luxurious Shangri-La Hotel, part of the Shangri-La Asia Limited group (SGX:S07). With its elegant façade, beautiful gardens and impeccable service, it’s not surprising to discover it is regularly voted one of the best hotels in the world.

But while Singapore’s Shangri-La hotel now boasts 88 serene sisters in its group, the company’s story is not all about riches and wealth.

The group’s humble beginnings stretch back to 1923, when a boy named Robert Kuok Hock Nien was born in Johor Bahru, Malaya. His family, originally from Fujian, China, had established a small provision shop, Tong Seng & Co. trading in rice, sugar and flour, and business was good. Robert and his older brother Philip were sent to the Johor Bahru English College and in 1939, Robert left to travel to Singapore, to attend the prestigious Raffles College.

However, the Japanese occupation of Singapore during the Second World War was to cut short Kuok’s education. Instead, he started work as a clerk in the rice-trading department of Japanese industrial conglomerate Mitsubishi, where he learned Japanese. With the help of the Japanese military, the company soon monopolised the rice trade in Malaya.

Sugar King

After the war, Kuok headed back to Malaya, armed with the skills he had learned from his Japanese employers.

In 1949, Robert founded Kuok Brothers Sdn. Bhd., together with his two brothers and a cousin, trading in agricultural commodities. However, heavy competition coupled with low margins was making the rice trade less attractive. Kuok turned his sights to sugar and after spending some time in England learning about the commodities market, he headed back to the newly independent Malaysia.

In 1959, Kuok founded Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Co. Bhd. with two Japanese business partners. The company invested heavily in sugar refineries, producing approximately 10% of the world’s production and gaining Kuok his nickname of “Sugar King”.

Kuok decided it was time to expand his interests, and the Kuok group added flour milling and trading, as well as palm-oil production to its empire.

Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts

It wasn’t until 1971, that Kuok made his first venture into real estate, with the purchase of a hotel property in Singapore that was to become to our luxurious Shangri-La Hotel.

The Kuok Group initially turned its hotel’s management over to Western International Hotels. But by 1981 when the group had opened its Shangri-La Hotel in Kowloon, Hong Kong, things had changed. The Group decided to cover direct hotel management as well, founding Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts, to be run by ex-Western employees David Hayden and Robert Hutchison.

China

The public’s appetite for luxury hotels had been well and truly whetted, and the group now set its sights on China. Interestingly, Kuok chose to avoid the big cities and rather target an area where his hotel would be the first and only luxury hotel. In 1984, the Kuok group opened its first Shangri-La hotel in Hangzhou, a city on the east coast of China.

Traders

The group quickly realised it would be useful to offer a mid-range brand in addition to its Shangri-La luxury, and in 1989, launched its first Traders hotel, offering quality, comfort and excellent service at a lower price-point. It was hoped that in the long term the Traders hotels would help develop the market for luxury hotel services, in readiness for the Group’s introduction of its Shangri-La brand.

By the mid-nineties, the group had built further properties in China, and added hotels in Hong Kong, the Philippines, Indonesia and Fiji to its portfolio.

Shangri-La Asia Limited

In 1995, the group set up Shangri-La Asia Ltd to take over its hotel properties and listed it on the Hong Kong, as well as Singapore Stock Exchanges. Then, in 1997, Shangri-La Asia Ltd. additionally took over Kuok’s hotel management company Shangri-La Hotels and Resorts to create an integrated hotel management group.

But did you know…

The Shangri-La hotel gets its name from the fictional, mystical, earthly paradise described in James Hilton’s 1933 novel, Lost Horizons, which was said to cast a spell over all who reside there.
Robert Kuok currently features at position #110 in the Forbes list of the world’s billionaires and has been the richest man in South East Asia since 2002.
During Robert Kuok’s time at Raffles College he was a classmate of future Malaysian Prime Ministers Tun Abdul Razak and Tun Hussein Onn, as well as Lee Kuan Yew.
Despite the difficulties encountered by hotel groups during the 2000s when terrorist attacks in New York, as well as the SARS outbreak put tourists, as well as business travellers putting off travelling, the Shangri-La Asia Ltd group emerged generally unscathed. This could be partly due to its sensible expansion plans, but also Robert Kuok’s forward-thinking decision to build in smaller Chinese cities, which allowed the group to profit greatly from China’s fast-growing economy.

Today, the Shangri-La Asia Ltd. group has added Kerry Hotels and the Hotel Jen hotel chains to its world-class hotel group, and introduced its distinctive Asian standards of hospitality and luxury to countries not only in Asia, but also the Middle East, Canada and Europe."



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The Risks with Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust’s Billion Dollar Australian Deal | The Motley Fool Singapore

The Risks with Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust’s Billion Dollar Australian Deal | The Motley Fool Singapore: "“Several trends that have been witnessed in the past year including a strong compression in yield which has led to an increase in asset prices, particularly in the core logistics markets of Western Sydney, Melbourne’s West and South East markets as well as Brisbane’s Trade Coast and the Logan Motorway corridor outside Brisbane.

The scarcity of quality assets available on the market combined with the continued aggressive acquisitions by offshore funds has seen some owners sell and capitalise on the high prices overseas buyers are willing to pay for quality locations.”"



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Lesson 4- Introduction to Chart Hacking

Lesson 4- Introduction to Chart Hacking:



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Braintree And PayPal's Anniversary $50B | PYMNTS.com

Braintree And PayPal's Anniversary $50B | PYMNTS.com: "“At the time that we announced the PayPal/Braintree deal [in 2013],one of the things I was very public about…was that this wasn’t a typical acquisition, where the management team and I were going to ride off into the sunset shortly after the deal closed. Rather, we were doing [the acquisition] because we really believed in the vision we had for what mobile commerce could be – and PayPal shared that vision. It was the beginning of our next chapter.”"

From $12 billion in annual volume when Braintree first joined with PayPal, the company is now operating at north of $50 billion. That’s more than a fourfold increase in a span of two years, and a volume that Ready says that few other players — especially other new entrants in the payments space — have achieved.
Two years ago, Braintree had 56.5M cards on file; today it has 154M.
The Venmo Touch experience has morphed too. B.P. (Before PayPal), Venmo Touch was the first one-touch mobile buying experience to hit the market, allowing a consumer to pay in a single touch across multiple apps on their mobile device, Braintree, says Ready, “was ready to take that [experience] to the world,” and work hard to make it the default way that consumers buy on their mobile devices.
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(PYPL) - Why PayPal's CEO Is 'Extremely Confident' In The Company's Business Model | Benzinga

(PYPL) - Why PayPal's CEO Is 'Extremely Confident' In The Company's Business Model | Benzinga: "Many Growth Opportunities Ahead

Keane expanded that PayPal's growth opportunities include adoption of One Touch, triple digit growth at Braintree (expected to surpass $50 billion in processed volume), a large merchant omnichannel strategy, accelerated sign-up of small merchants, international expansion, increased frequency of consumer usage and the upcoming monetization of Venmo later this year or early next year.

Keane singled out Braintree, noting that it is a "leading mobile payments platform" given its developer-friendly ease of integration, open API format and reduced setup time from days/weeks to hours. Moreover, PayPal expects to take its recently acquired Xoom platform beyond the United States with plans to use more than 35 bank relationships internationally to facilitate further cross border payments."



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Apple's top-selling app says goodbye

Apple's top-selling app says goodbye:



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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Facebook Payment and Google Wallet to Receive a Huge Blow as PayPal Rolls Out PayPal.Me - Neurogadget.com

There is nothing to worry about if you are sending some cash to your friend or relative as there are no charges involved. However, you must be using a debit card for this to work. In case of a business entity, you must part with 2.9% of the transaction amount plus $0.30 per transaction.

In 2011 Google came in with Google Wallet. Even though the service is still active, most carriers have blocked it and it is considered a failure among the Android users. Google went back to the drawing board and this year, in May, it came out with another online payment service known as Android Pay. This had led to the rebranding of Google Wallet into something that almost works like PayPal. The rebranded app will allow the users to send, as well as request for cash, both on the Android and iOS platforms.
During the same month of May, Facebook also announced that it was joining the mobile payment world with a Messenger payment service. To create a link, all Messenger users need to do is to key in a given amount, for instance, $50. When this link is clicked, you will be prompted to transfer the specified amount of cash to the person in your chat. Just like Google Wallet and PayPal, this P2P payment on Facebook Messenger is free. As of now, the service is only available to individuals and not businesses.
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PayPal Makes a Quiet Return to US Online Gambling Market - September 17, 2015 - Zacks.com

PayPal Makes a Quiet Return to US Online Gambling Market - September 17, 2015 - Zacks.com:



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