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Saturday, October 31, 2015
Friday, October 30, 2015
Thursday, October 29, 2015
A Simple 4-Step Introduction to ETFs | The Fifth Person
A Simple 4-Step Introduction to ETFs | The Fifth Person:
On 22 January 1993, State Street Global Advisors launched the first ever exchange-traded fund or ETF. The Standard & Poor Depository Receipt (SPDR or “spider” for short) tracked the S&P 500 index and allowed investors everywhere an easy way to invest in 500 of the most successful U.S. companies with just one stock.
If you invested in these 500 companies individually, the transaction fees alone would cost you thousands of dollars (not including your capital outlay). But with the ETF, you can have a stake in all these great companies for just US$200. Today the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is still the largest exchange-traded product in the world with over US$180 billion in net assets.
In Singapore, State Street Global Advisors introduced the first ETF in Singapore with the SPDR Straits Times Index on 11 April 2002. Today with just S$300, you can own 30 of the most successful Singaporean companies with the STI ETF.
On 29 April 2015, we saw a breakthrough development when the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reclassified a certain number of ETFs from the status of Specified Investment Product (SIP) to Excluded Investment Product (EIP). As its name ‘excluded’ suggests, EIPs are subject to less regulatory scrutiny and this would make it easier for retail investors to invest in ETFs.
There literally hundreds of various ETFs out there to suit every investment need and profile. But for the purpose of my writing, I will be touching on a handful of the more common ones from Singapore and the U.S.
Types of ETFs
For the novice investor (and also as a refresher for the experienced investor), let us define an ETF. An ETF is defined as an open-ended investment fund with underlying assets that are listed and traded on a stock exchange.
In other words, an ETF is like a mutual fund whose shares trade like a stock. The assets of the ETFs are the component shares of the index (or sector, industry, commodity, etc.) which it is replicating. Is the job of the ETF manager to rebalance its portfolio along with changes in the index.
This is known as tracking the index and the accuracy to which your ETF manager tracks the index is known as tracking risk. The lower the tracking risk, the better.
These are the various types of ETFs there are in the market:
Passive ETFs. This is the most common type of ETF which tracks an index. It does not attempt to outperform the market because it is the market.
Active ETFs. The ETF manager uses strategies to aim to outperform the market.
Leveraged ETFs. These can be passive/active funds but the use of leverage means your gains are bigger (and this applies to losses too).
Inverse ETFs. These can be passive/active funds. The ETF makes money when the index is down and vice versa. This is useful for markets that ban short selling.
Volatility ETFs. This ETF tracks the volatility of an asset. In other words, it makes money when the underlying asset price moves up or down, as long as it moves. Volatility ETFs are more hedging and/or speculation purposes and is for highly sophisticated investors only. I won’t be covering this at all in my follow-up articles.
The SDPR S&P 500 ETF and the STI ETF are examples of passive ETFs that track the index. Each of these ETFs can be applied for different investment strategies for different portfolio requirements.
ETF Asset Classes
Different ETFs can hold a variety of assets such as:
Equity. Besides broad-based equity indexes like the STI and S&P 500, there are ETFs which track sector/industry specific indices such as the S&P 500 Energy Index or the S&P 500 technology Index.
Bonds. The ETF tracks a bond index by buying the bonds as its underlying assets. (Side note: Exchange traded notes (ETN) are a close substitute for bonds ETFs. An ETN doesn’t track an index and hence faces no tracking error. ETNs are debt notes issued from a bank which are traded on an exchange.)
Commodities. Gold, silver, oil, copper and other commodities have their own indices for ETFs to track. You can save on storage and insurance fees by buying an ETF to gain exposure to a particular commodity.
Currencies. The ETF tracks a particular currency like the US dollar, Euro, Yen, etc. This is good to use as a hedge for your foreign currency exposure without the need for complex forex transactions. For example, if you think that the USD will weaken against the SGD, you can buy the DB USD Index Bearish ETF (UDN) as a hedge to protect the value of your SGD portfolio.
Premium/Discount Volatility Advantage
We already know that buying through ETF gives us a cost advantage when building a diversified portfolio. This is especially useful when you don’t have a strong preference for individual shares but you would still like to invest from the growth of the overall market.
For example, you might be bullish on the U.S. market but instead of choosing between Apple and Pfizer, you can just buy the SDPR S&P 500. In a stroke, you own both shares and the rest of the S&P 500 index in just one transaction.
Another advantage of ETFs is the premium and discount volatility. In other words, you might be able to buy Apple slightly cheaper through an ETF than what Apple shares are trading for on the NASDAQ now. So why is there a premium/discount for ETFs?
There are two prices for the valuation of an ETF. The first is the market value of the ETF itself. For example, the market value of the STI ETF itself is $3.00 per share.
The second price is the net asset value (NAV) of the ETF. For the STI ETF, the NAV is based on the prices of the different holdings of the 30 top Singaporean companies in the index. Theoretically, the NAV should equal the market price of the ETF.
However this is not always the case in reality. You can actually buy the ETF at a slight discount to the NAV. As a general rule of thumb, the more established and liquid the ETF is, the less chance that you can buy it at a discount. This would apply to premium side of the equation when you are selling an ETF.
Let us consider these two ETFs which track the S&P 500. The first would be the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) which was introduced earlier and the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VOO). The SPDR S&P 500 has total assets worth approximately US$180 billion while the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has assets of US$200 billion at the point of writing. Let us look the monthly premium/discount for these two ETFs:
nds as seen below:
On 22 January 1993, State Street Global Advisors launched the first ever exchange-traded fund or ETF. The Standard & Poor Depository Receipt (SPDR or “spider” for short) tracked the S&P 500 index and allowed investors everywhere an easy way to invest in 500 of the most successful U.S. companies with just one stock.
If you invested in these 500 companies individually, the transaction fees alone would cost you thousands of dollars (not including your capital outlay). But with the ETF, you can have a stake in all these great companies for just US$200. Today the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is still the largest exchange-traded product in the world with over US$180 billion in net assets.
In Singapore, State Street Global Advisors introduced the first ETF in Singapore with the SPDR Straits Times Index on 11 April 2002. Today with just S$300, you can own 30 of the most successful Singaporean companies with the STI ETF.
On 29 April 2015, we saw a breakthrough development when the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) reclassified a certain number of ETFs from the status of Specified Investment Product (SIP) to Excluded Investment Product (EIP). As its name ‘excluded’ suggests, EIPs are subject to less regulatory scrutiny and this would make it easier for retail investors to invest in ETFs.
There literally hundreds of various ETFs out there to suit every investment need and profile. But for the purpose of my writing, I will be touching on a handful of the more common ones from Singapore and the U.S.
Types of ETFs
For the novice investor (and also as a refresher for the experienced investor), let us define an ETF. An ETF is defined as an open-ended investment fund with underlying assets that are listed and traded on a stock exchange.
In other words, an ETF is like a mutual fund whose shares trade like a stock. The assets of the ETFs are the component shares of the index (or sector, industry, commodity, etc.) which it is replicating. Is the job of the ETF manager to rebalance its portfolio along with changes in the index.
This is known as tracking the index and the accuracy to which your ETF manager tracks the index is known as tracking risk. The lower the tracking risk, the better.
These are the various types of ETFs there are in the market:
Passive ETFs. This is the most common type of ETF which tracks an index. It does not attempt to outperform the market because it is the market.
Active ETFs. The ETF manager uses strategies to aim to outperform the market.
Leveraged ETFs. These can be passive/active funds but the use of leverage means your gains are bigger (and this applies to losses too).
Inverse ETFs. These can be passive/active funds. The ETF makes money when the index is down and vice versa. This is useful for markets that ban short selling.
Volatility ETFs. This ETF tracks the volatility of an asset. In other words, it makes money when the underlying asset price moves up or down, as long as it moves. Volatility ETFs are more hedging and/or speculation purposes and is for highly sophisticated investors only. I won’t be covering this at all in my follow-up articles.
The SDPR S&P 500 ETF and the STI ETF are examples of passive ETFs that track the index. Each of these ETFs can be applied for different investment strategies for different portfolio requirements.
ETF Asset Classes
Different ETFs can hold a variety of assets such as:
Equity. Besides broad-based equity indexes like the STI and S&P 500, there are ETFs which track sector/industry specific indices such as the S&P 500 Energy Index or the S&P 500 technology Index.
Bonds. The ETF tracks a bond index by buying the bonds as its underlying assets. (Side note: Exchange traded notes (ETN) are a close substitute for bonds ETFs. An ETN doesn’t track an index and hence faces no tracking error. ETNs are debt notes issued from a bank which are traded on an exchange.)
Commodities. Gold, silver, oil, copper and other commodities have their own indices for ETFs to track. You can save on storage and insurance fees by buying an ETF to gain exposure to a particular commodity.
Currencies. The ETF tracks a particular currency like the US dollar, Euro, Yen, etc. This is good to use as a hedge for your foreign currency exposure without the need for complex forex transactions. For example, if you think that the USD will weaken against the SGD, you can buy the DB USD Index Bearish ETF (UDN) as a hedge to protect the value of your SGD portfolio.
Premium/Discount Volatility Advantage
We already know that buying through ETF gives us a cost advantage when building a diversified portfolio. This is especially useful when you don’t have a strong preference for individual shares but you would still like to invest from the growth of the overall market.
For example, you might be bullish on the U.S. market but instead of choosing between Apple and Pfizer, you can just buy the SDPR S&P 500. In a stroke, you own both shares and the rest of the S&P 500 index in just one transaction.
Another advantage of ETFs is the premium and discount volatility. In other words, you might be able to buy Apple slightly cheaper through an ETF than what Apple shares are trading for on the NASDAQ now. So why is there a premium/discount for ETFs?
There are two prices for the valuation of an ETF. The first is the market value of the ETF itself. For example, the market value of the STI ETF itself is $3.00 per share.
The second price is the net asset value (NAV) of the ETF. For the STI ETF, the NAV is based on the prices of the different holdings of the 30 top Singaporean companies in the index. Theoretically, the NAV should equal the market price of the ETF.
However this is not always the case in reality. You can actually buy the ETF at a slight discount to the NAV. As a general rule of thumb, the more established and liquid the ETF is, the less chance that you can buy it at a discount. This would apply to premium side of the equation when you are selling an ETF.
Let us consider these two ETFs which track the S&P 500. The first would be the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) which was introduced earlier and the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VOO). The SPDR S&P 500 has total assets worth approximately US$180 billion while the Vanguard 500 Index Fund has assets of US$200 billion at the point of writing. Let us look the monthly premium/discount for these two ETFs:
The Morningstar wording can be confusing so let me clarify. High discount means premium and low discount means discount.
In 2014, the average discount for the Vanguard 500 Index Fund was 0.02% discount. The maximum discount was 0.04% and the maximum premium was 0.02%. For the SDPR S&P 500, the average discount was exactly 0.00%. The maximum discount was 0.05% and the maximum premium was 0.02%.
In other words, for the majority of 2014, the SDPR S&P 500 was more efficient than the Vanguard 500 Index Fund at managing the value of its NAV to its market price. However, there was at least one point in 2014 where SPY slipped up and offered at steeper discount than VOO but it recovered very quickly.
While the premium/discount volatility is rather low for equities, it can be substantial for bonds as seen below:
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Hello Kitty, farewell Rolex as Hong Kong shoppers go downmarket | The Edge Markets
Hello Kitty, farewell Rolex as Hong Kong shoppers go downmarket | The Edge Markets: "(Oct 28): In Hong Kong, fancy purses are out, sneakers are in.
US luxury handbag maker Coach Inc. opened its four-story flagship store in the heart of Hong Kong’s Central district to much fanfare in June 2008, with a celebrity-studded, champagne-fuelled party. In August, the company quietly terminated its HK$5.6 million ($1 million) per month lease and Adidas is moving in -- paying 23% less in rent, according to Colliers International Group Inc.
This is not an isolated case. Russell Street in Causeway Bay, which boasted the most expensive shop rents in the world until New York’s Fifth Avenue overtook it a year ago, is undergoing a major transformation. A location formerly rented by Emperor Watch & Jewelry that sold diamond-studded Cartier watches is now home to discount cosmetics retailer company Bonjour Holdings Ltd. that sells HK$58 packets of Hello Kitty false eyelashes and HK$18 jars of Tiger Balm ointments. Next door, rival Colourmix Cosmetics Co. has moved into a space vacated by Swiss watchmaker Jaeger-LeCoultre.
As Kering SA’s Gucci, LVMH’s Louis Vuitton, and jewelry chain Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group bargain for lower rents or close stores amid a decline in mainland tourists who had underpinned their sales, mid-tier retailers are filling the gaps. Brands that appeal to the broader market are taking advantage of declining leases to move into some of Hong Kong’s most coveted retail locations.
“The fallout in the watch and jewelry as well as luxury sector is paving the way for fast fashion brands to expand,” Tom Gaffney, head of retail at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. in Hong Kong, said in a phone interview."
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US luxury handbag maker Coach Inc. opened its four-story flagship store in the heart of Hong Kong’s Central district to much fanfare in June 2008, with a celebrity-studded, champagne-fuelled party. In August, the company quietly terminated its HK$5.6 million ($1 million) per month lease and Adidas is moving in -- paying 23% less in rent, according to Colliers International Group Inc.
This is not an isolated case. Russell Street in Causeway Bay, which boasted the most expensive shop rents in the world until New York’s Fifth Avenue overtook it a year ago, is undergoing a major transformation. A location formerly rented by Emperor Watch & Jewelry that sold diamond-studded Cartier watches is now home to discount cosmetics retailer company Bonjour Holdings Ltd. that sells HK$58 packets of Hello Kitty false eyelashes and HK$18 jars of Tiger Balm ointments. Next door, rival Colourmix Cosmetics Co. has moved into a space vacated by Swiss watchmaker Jaeger-LeCoultre.
As Kering SA’s Gucci, LVMH’s Louis Vuitton, and jewelry chain Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group bargain for lower rents or close stores amid a decline in mainland tourists who had underpinned their sales, mid-tier retailers are filling the gaps. Brands that appeal to the broader market are taking advantage of declining leases to move into some of Hong Kong’s most coveted retail locations.
“The fallout in the watch and jewelry as well as luxury sector is paving the way for fast fashion brands to expand,” Tom Gaffney, head of retail at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. in Hong Kong, said in a phone interview."
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EZRA: Targeting to resume paying dividends!
EZRA: Targeting to resume paying dividends!: "At its results briefing, Ezra’s management surprised us by highlighting its target to return to paying dividends. Maintain TRADING BUY, with a SOP-based SGD0.33 TP (from SGD0.36, 154% upside).
After selling half the subsea business, its balance sheet is indeed looking healthier and the company should return to positive FCF this year. The USD67m tranche of debt to be refinanced by Mar 2016 is not large enough to warrant solvency concerns."
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After selling half the subsea business, its balance sheet is indeed looking healthier and the company should return to positive FCF this year. The USD67m tranche of debt to be refinanced by Mar 2016 is not large enough to warrant solvency concerns."
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China's bid to prop up property investment challenged amid glut | The Edge Property Singapore Singapore
China's bid to prop up property investment challenged amid glut | The Edge Property Singapore Singapore: "China’s moves to ease mortgage restrictions and cut interest rates are bearing fruit in the nation’s smaller cities, where home prices have staged a recovery. Now comes the bigger challenge: Clearing a supply glut to spur investment by developers.
Lower borrowing costs are helping a residential market recovery spread from the economic hubs such as Shanghai and Shenzhen to smaller and less-prosperous cities. New-home prices rose in September from August in more than half of the 70 major cities monitored by the government for the first time in 17 months. Yet, a construction boom over the past two years has led to 424.7 million square meters of unsold homes languishing nationwide as of Sept. 30.
Reviving investment in real estate is crucial for the government, which on Friday stepped up monetary easing with its sixth interest-rate cut in a year and scrapped a ceiling on deposit rates as part of efforts by Premier Li Keqiang to find new engines of growth. China cut the deposit first-time homebuyers in smaller cities need to put down last month and is targeting oversupply-plagued cities that account for about 85 percent of sales nationwide, according to China International Capital Corp."
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Lower borrowing costs are helping a residential market recovery spread from the economic hubs such as Shanghai and Shenzhen to smaller and less-prosperous cities. New-home prices rose in September from August in more than half of the 70 major cities monitored by the government for the first time in 17 months. Yet, a construction boom over the past two years has led to 424.7 million square meters of unsold homes languishing nationwide as of Sept. 30.
Reviving investment in real estate is crucial for the government, which on Friday stepped up monetary easing with its sixth interest-rate cut in a year and scrapped a ceiling on deposit rates as part of efforts by Premier Li Keqiang to find new engines of growth. China cut the deposit first-time homebuyers in smaller cities need to put down last month and is targeting oversupply-plagued cities that account for about 85 percent of sales nationwide, according to China International Capital Corp."
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Monday, October 26, 2015
Sunday, October 25, 2015
Friday, October 23, 2015
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Energy Voice | EMAS Offshore wins $33million of new contracts in Asia and Africa - News for the Oil and Gas Sector
Energy Voice | EMAS Offshore wins $33million of new contracts in Asia and Africa - News for the Oil and Gas Sector: "“The group is likely to experience an intense price competition on its charter rates and a tapered rate for its vessel utilisation. This will inevitably have an impact on the group’s operating
and financial performance.
“However, we continue to adopt measures to strengthen our balance sheet and conserve cash. We are focused on opportunities for our offshore assets and accommodation and support services, and barring any major long-term disruption, we will be able to benefit from an eventual upturn.
“In the face of significant volatility and weakness in the oil price environment, we have taken further steps to reduce cost, targeting a further reduction between 10-20% on vessel cost and general administrative expenses."
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and financial performance.
“However, we continue to adopt measures to strengthen our balance sheet and conserve cash. We are focused on opportunities for our offshore assets and accommodation and support services, and barring any major long-term disruption, we will be able to benefit from an eventual upturn.
“In the face of significant volatility and weakness in the oil price environment, we have taken further steps to reduce cost, targeting a further reduction between 10-20% on vessel cost and general administrative expenses."
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OPEC Is About to Crush the U.S. Oil Boom - Bloomberg Business
“It’s taken a hell of a long time and it will continue to take a long time -- U.S. oil production has been more resilient than people thought,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil markets research at Societe Generale SA in London. “The bottom line is the re-balancing has begun.”"
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Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in 5 Years, IMF Says - Bloomberg Business
Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in 5 Years, IMF Says - Bloomberg Business: "Saudi Arabia may run out of financial assets needed to support spending within five years amid the drop in oil prices if the government maintains current policies, the International Monetary Fund said, underscoring the need of measures to cut the nation’s budget deficit.
The same is true of Bahrain and Oman in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, the IMF said in a report on Wednesday. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have relatively more financial assets that could support them for more than 20 years, the Washington-based lender said."
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The same is true of Bahrain and Oman in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council, the IMF said in a report on Wednesday. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have relatively more financial assets that could support them for more than 20 years, the Washington-based lender said."
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Fragrance Hotels: “Bookings are up 40 percent since we partnered with SiteMinder”
Fragrance Hotels: “Bookings are up 40 percent since we partnered with SiteMinder”: ""Bookings are up forty percent since we partnered with SiteMinder. Using The Channel Manager has helped us to focus more on our other tasks and less on managing our rooms online. We're saving about 120 hours of manpower per month. Ultimately, it's allowed us to maximise our online revenue right up to the last room.
"SiteMinder's technology is not only affordable and user-friendly, it is stable and we have full trust in its connectivity.""
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"SiteMinder's technology is not only affordable and user-friendly, it is stable and we have full trust in its connectivity.""
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Tuesday, October 20, 2015
China in record crude oil buying year on teapot demand, stockpiling
China in record crude oil buying year on teapot demand, stockpiling: "Despite slower growth in recent months - crude imports rose just 1.3 percent in September on a year earlier - buying for October-November delivery has picked up strongly, traders and analysts say.
The purchases will ease concerns of a sharp slowdown in Chinese buying and support prices in coming months, analysts said.
The increased buying has shown up in tanker movements and freight rates, said Energy Aspects analyst Virendra Chauhan, and analysts are upgrading earlier forecasts for second half growth.
"Despite a slowing Chinese economy, crude imports remain robust on the back of accelerated stockpiling activities into operating and commercial storage," said Wendy Yong, analyst at oil consultancy FGE."
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The purchases will ease concerns of a sharp slowdown in Chinese buying and support prices in coming months, analysts said.
The increased buying has shown up in tanker movements and freight rates, said Energy Aspects analyst Virendra Chauhan, and analysts are upgrading earlier forecasts for second half growth.
"Despite a slowing Chinese economy, crude imports remain robust on the back of accelerated stockpiling activities into operating and commercial storage," said Wendy Yong, analyst at oil consultancy FGE."
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Monday, October 19, 2015
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Scouring the world for cheap stocks | The Edge Markets
Scouring the world for cheap stocks | The Edge Markets: "“Buying energy stocks today when everybody dislikes them… that is Templeton’s philosophy. Similarly, we bought European financial stocks in 2012. [At the time, European banks were trading at distressed levels on the back of the European debt crisis, which threatened to break up the eurozone.] That was a ‘buy when there is blood on the streets’ situation. That paid off but it took a while to work,” says Boersma, who likes the European equity markets where he still sees good stock-picking opportunities."
His most famous bargain-hunting feat was in 1939, when he invested US$100 in every stock in the New York Stock Exchange that was trading for less than one US dollar a share. He made a killing years later when US stocks recovered from the Great Depression.To be successful in value investing, investors need to have patience and discipline in their buy and sell decisions, according to the CIO. “You have to keep your emotions in check. We have a discipline in the way we invest and value companies. Markets are volatile and investors are emotional. Prices tend to move around based on fear and greed. When everything is going well and everybody is making money, investors tend to get greedy. When the world is coming to an end and everybody is worried, people will be fearful. Usually, the reality is somewhere in between those two things, and there is where we see opportunities.” To be sure, value investing has its fair share of criticism, Boersma admits. “You can be way too early selling out on the greedy stuff or buying in on the fearful stuff.” But over the longer term, value investing has stood the test of time in terms of its effectiveness in making money from stocks, he argues. “Through my experience, it has worked over and over again. But you have to be patient.” This means stock investments undertaken by Boersma and his team may take years to pay off. This could be the case for energy stocks.
“When markets undergo a difficult period, staying the course is important. What I would tell my people is to quit looking at the Bloomberg terminals, find a stock that they are really interested to invest in and study it carefully. Focus on that and forget about everything else,” says Boersma, chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group, the valuefocused international equity division of global fund house Franklin Templeton Investments.
“The biggest mistake you can make is being a deer on the road, getting mesmerised by the headlights and doing nothing. There is always going to be some risks and opportunities in global investing. You have to figure out what they are and do something about them as opposed to sitting there, worrying and doing nothing,” adds the 57-year-old Bahamas-based Canadian in an interview with Personal Wealth when he was in town recently.
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His most famous bargain-hunting feat was in 1939, when he invested US$100 in every stock in the New York Stock Exchange that was trading for less than one US dollar a share. He made a killing years later when US stocks recovered from the Great Depression.To be successful in value investing, investors need to have patience and discipline in their buy and sell decisions, according to the CIO. “You have to keep your emotions in check. We have a discipline in the way we invest and value companies. Markets are volatile and investors are emotional. Prices tend to move around based on fear and greed. When everything is going well and everybody is making money, investors tend to get greedy. When the world is coming to an end and everybody is worried, people will be fearful. Usually, the reality is somewhere in between those two things, and there is where we see opportunities.” To be sure, value investing has its fair share of criticism, Boersma admits. “You can be way too early selling out on the greedy stuff or buying in on the fearful stuff.” But over the longer term, value investing has stood the test of time in terms of its effectiveness in making money from stocks, he argues. “Through my experience, it has worked over and over again. But you have to be patient.” This means stock investments undertaken by Boersma and his team may take years to pay off. This could be the case for energy stocks.
“When markets undergo a difficult period, staying the course is important. What I would tell my people is to quit looking at the Bloomberg terminals, find a stock that they are really interested to invest in and study it carefully. Focus on that and forget about everything else,” says Boersma, chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group, the valuefocused international equity division of global fund house Franklin Templeton Investments.
“The biggest mistake you can make is being a deer on the road, getting mesmerised by the headlights and doing nothing. There is always going to be some risks and opportunities in global investing. You have to figure out what they are and do something about them as opposed to sitting there, worrying and doing nothing,” adds the 57-year-old Bahamas-based Canadian in an interview with Personal Wealth when he was in town recently.
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Saturday, October 17, 2015
Gold scores highest settlement in four months - MarketWatch
Gold scores highest settlement in four months - MarketWatch: "“The latest rally has been fueled by a three-week plunge in the U.S. dollar and small speculators leaning on the short side of the metal expecting it to test the $1,000 level,” said Ken Ford, president of Warwick Valley Financial Advisors.
The U.S. dollar index DXY, +0.31% posted declines over the past two weeks, and was poised for a loss this week as expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this year fades. The index on Thursday, however, strengthened after data showing weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the early 1970s.
“Gold has entered its favorable seasonality period,” said Ford. “Looking back at almost 40 years of data, gold tends to sell off between March and July then rallies into year-end.”
“There are various reasons why gold tends to rise during back half of the of the year…including the wedding season in India,” he said.
Now that gold has cleared some important technical levels at $1,156 and $1,169, there is a good chance that the “downtrend has reversed,” he said. Gold futures logged losses in each of the past two years, but with Thursday’s gain, turned slightly higher this year to date."
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The U.S. dollar index DXY, +0.31% posted declines over the past two weeks, and was poised for a loss this week as expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this year fades. The index on Thursday, however, strengthened after data showing weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the early 1970s.
“Gold has entered its favorable seasonality period,” said Ford. “Looking back at almost 40 years of data, gold tends to sell off between March and July then rallies into year-end.”
“There are various reasons why gold tends to rise during back half of the of the year…including the wedding season in India,” he said.
Now that gold has cleared some important technical levels at $1,156 and $1,169, there is a good chance that the “downtrend has reversed,” he said. Gold futures logged losses in each of the past two years, but with Thursday’s gain, turned slightly higher this year to date."
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Did GLD Just Enter A Bull Market? - SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) | Seeking Alpha
Gold would need to move above $1,200, or 115 on GLD, for this rally to have some real momentum behind it. Until that happens, it's too early to say the bear market is officially over. The Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) is down 21.7%; it was down 35% YTD at the beginning of this month.
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Friday, October 16, 2015
Why Omnicom Is A Solid Dividend Growth Stock - Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE:OMC) | Seeking Alpha
OMC is one of the largest providers of advertising and marketing communication services (it almost merged with Publicis Groupe to become the largest ad agency in the world, but the merger was terminated in May 2014 due to cultural differences and challenging regulatory issues). The company holds more than 1,500 advertising agencies that specialize in over 30 marketing disciplines, grouped into four segments: advertising (50% of sales), customer relationship management (34%), public relations (9%), and specialty communications (7%). A full-service agency provides numerous services, including designing ad campaigns, making the actual ads, determining where the ads should be placed and distributed, media buying, account management, public relations, consulting, and more. Most clients use ad agencies to perform all tasks of a campaign and prefer to conduct most of their business with just one or two agencies to streamline costs and efficiencies.
Today, OMC has more than 5,000 customers located in over 100 countries, although North America still accounts for around 60% of total sales (United Kingdom 10%, Other Europe 16%, Asia 10%, Latin America / Africa 4%). By client and end market, OMC is well diversified. In 2014, its largest client represented 2.6% of revenue, and no other client accounted for more than 2.5% of sales. Its top 100 clients, ranked by revenue, represented about 50% of OMC's total sales. Additionally, no industry makes up more than 13% of OMC's sales. OMC has historically done very well in the food & beverage (13% of sales), pharma & health (11%), consumer products (9%), technology (9%), and auto (8%) markets. According to Advertising Age, some of OMC's biggest customers include Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), P&G (NYSE:PG), Unilever (NYSE:UL), Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB), Hershey (NYSE:HSY), Kellogg (NYSE:K), Kraft (KNC), Mars, PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP), Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIY), GM (NYSE:GM), Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY), and Toyota (NYSE:TM)."
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ETP:High-Dividend Stock Yields 9%, Has 8 Straight Dividend Hikes And Insider Buying - Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ETP) | Seeking Alpha
Cramer: A must-own energy stock for your portfolio
Cramer likes this stock not only because it has a whopping 9 percent yield, but also because he thinks it is tremendously undervalued. Energy Transfer was crushed this year by lower oil and natural gas prices, fears of the Federal Reserve raising rates and the third quarter sell-off driven by damaged hedge funds with too much energy exposure.
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Latest: Global stocks bounce; Rio's iron ore soars
Latest: Global stocks bounce; Rio's iron ore soars: "The mining giant clocked a 17 percent increase in third quarter iron ore shipments — a surprising result in light of ongoing concerns over Chinese demand. Rio Tinto added it was on track to meet full year targets of 340 million tonnes."
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Thursday, October 15, 2015
Oil prices will rebound much faster than market is predicting, Barclays says - MarketWatch
Oil prices will rebound much faster than market is predicting, Barclays says - MarketWatch: "“Under any reasonable demand scenario (ranging from 0.9 million barrels a day to 1.4 million barrels a day of annual average demand growth from 2016-2020), prices need to move higher than what the oil-futures market is currently pricing in, or there will not be enough supply,” the analysts led by Michael Cohen, said in the report."
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Oil prices will rebound much faster than market is predicting, Barclays says - MarketWatch
Oil prices will rebound much faster than market is predicting, Barclays says - MarketWatch: "“Under any reasonable demand scenario (ranging from 0.9 million barrels a day to 1.4 million barrels a day of annual average demand growth from 2016-2020), prices need to move higher than what the oil-futures market is currently pricing in, or there will not be enough supply,” the analysts led by Michael Cohen, said in the report."
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Charting the Markets: Burberry and Bonds Not as Good as Gold - Bloomberg Business
Charting the Markets: Burberry and Bonds Not as Good as Gold - Bloomberg Business: "Gold's winning run has stretched to the longest in eight weeks. When the precious metal sank to a five-year low on Aug. 5, the odds of a U.S rate increase in October were 55 percent. As expectations for higher borrowing costs get pushed back, the prospects for gold have improved and it's rebounded almost 10 percent in two months. Gold is less attractive in a rate-tightening cycle because it doesn't pay interest or dividends, unlike bonds or equities. Momentum is on its side right now. On Wednesday the metal moved above its 200-day moving average for the first time in five months, signaling an uptrend. The commodity's quarterly losing streak now stands at five, the longest since June 1997."
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Warren Buffett's $390 million loss on Wal-Mart's stock is nothing next to the Walton family's loss - MarketWatch
Warren Buffett's $390 million loss on Wal-Mart's stock is nothing next to the Walton family's loss - MarketWatch: "Warren Buffett is probably not a very happy man, as his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B, -0.76% appears to be losing nearly $390 million on its investment in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT, -10.04% on Wednesday. Berkshire owned 60.39 million shares of Wal-Mart as of June 30, according to FactSet, making the retail giant its seventh-biggest holding. With the stock plunging $6.44, or 9.7%, in afternoon trade--on track for the biggest one-day price drop in its history--after the company provided a downbeat fiscal 2017 earnings outlook, Berkshire's Wal-Mart stake is worth $388.85 million less than it was on Tuesday. What might make Buffett feel a little better: Walton Enterprises LLC, the holding company of the Walton family that founded the retailer, owns 1.42 billion Wal-Mart shares, or about 44.2% of the shares outstanding, according to FactSet. That means the Walton family is losing $9.12 billion in one day on its Wal-Mart stake."
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Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Gold Comes Back to Life as Prices Exceed 200-Day Moving Average - Bloomberg Business
The weak dollar and physical demand from China and India are also supporting bullion, Takai said. The greenback is near its lowest in more than three months."
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Gold comes back to life, Energy & Commodities - THE BUSINESS TIMES
Gold comes back to life, Energy & Commodities - THE BUSINESS TIMES: "The metal's gain above "the 200-day moving average gives longer-term confidence" to bulls, Frank Holmes, the San Antonio- based chief investment officer at US Global Investors, said in a telephone interview. "Gold only becomes unattractive when you can't earn money on it." Gold futures for December delivery gained 1.2 per cent to settle at US$1,179.80 an ounce Wednesday on the Comex in New York. The 200-day measure is near US$1,176. The metal is coming close to erasing its 2015 loss, and is down just 0.4 per cent since the end of December."
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Bearish ‘hanging man’ pattern warns don’t buy the dip in the Dow transports - MarketWatch
• A very little or no “upper shadow,” which in candlestick chart parlance in this case means the close (8,260.93 on Monday) is very close to or at the intraday high (8,262.36).
• A relatively small body, meaning the opening (8,254.31) and closing prices are relatively close together.
• A relatively long lower shadow, meaning there is a big spread between the intraday low (8,181.67) and opening price.
• A lower close the following session (Tuesday), ideally below the body of the hanging man. The Dow transports slumped 2.2% on Tuesday to 8,077.74, to complete the bearish pattern.
"
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Car buying in Singapore - What you are actually paying for
Car buying in Singapore - What you are actually paying for:
"Factors contributing to car prices in Singapore:
1) Registration Fees - Basic administrative fees of $140.
2) Goods & Services Tax (7% GST on Excise Duty + OMV) - A form of consumption tax that is imposed based on the value of goods.
3) Excise Duty (20% of OMV) - Additional form of tax imposed. Like the ARF, the Excise Duty is also calculated based on a percentage of the OMV of the vehicle.
4) Open Market Value (OMV) - Assessed by the Singapore Customs, OMV takes into account the purchase price, freight, insurance and all other charges incidental to the sale and delivery of the car from the country of manufacture to Singapore. The OMV is not the selling price from the manufacturer to local authorised dealers.
5) Certificate of Entitlement (COE) - Consists of five categories: Cat A (Cars 1600CC below & Taxi), B (Cars above 1600CC), C (Goods Vehicle & Bus), D (Motorcycles), and E (Open).
6) Additional Registration Fee (ARF) - 100% of the OMV based on the previous ruling. As of the next COE bidding in March 2013, a new tiered ARF structure will apply. Cars with OMV of up to $20,000 will not be affected but the next $30,000 ($20,001 - $50,000) will be taxed 140% of incremental OMV while cars with an OMV above $50,000 will be taxed 180% of incremental OMV."
7) Carbon Emissions-Based Vehicle Scheme (CEVS) - Vehicles with low carbon emissions of less than or equal to 160g/km are entitled to a rebate of $5,000 to $20,000. On the other hand, car owners will be penalised with a surcharge of $5,000 to $20,000 if their vehicle emits carbon more than or equal to 211g/km.
Any additional amount paid on top of the points above - Overheads, road tax, In-Vehicle Unit fee (IU), vehicle number plate fee, sales commision, profits for dealer etc.
To have a better look at the picture, two examples of a cost breakdown of the factors listed above will be shown on the next page.
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1) Registration Fees - Basic administrative fees of $140.
2) Goods & Services Tax (7% GST on Excise Duty + OMV) - A form of consumption tax that is imposed based on the value of goods.
3) Excise Duty (20% of OMV) - Additional form of tax imposed. Like the ARF, the Excise Duty is also calculated based on a percentage of the OMV of the vehicle.
4) Open Market Value (OMV) - Assessed by the Singapore Customs, OMV takes into account the purchase price, freight, insurance and all other charges incidental to the sale and delivery of the car from the country of manufacture to Singapore. The OMV is not the selling price from the manufacturer to local authorised dealers.
5) Certificate of Entitlement (COE) - Consists of five categories: Cat A (Cars 1600CC below & Taxi), B (Cars above 1600CC), C (Goods Vehicle & Bus), D (Motorcycles), and E (Open).
6) Additional Registration Fee (ARF) - 100% of the OMV based on the previous ruling. As of the next COE bidding in March 2013, a new tiered ARF structure will apply. Cars with OMV of up to $20,000 will not be affected but the next $30,000 ($20,001 - $50,000) will be taxed 140% of incremental OMV while cars with an OMV above $50,000 will be taxed 180% of incremental OMV."
7) Carbon Emissions-Based Vehicle Scheme (CEVS) - Vehicles with low carbon emissions of less than or equal to 160g/km are entitled to a rebate of $5,000 to $20,000. On the other hand, car owners will be penalised with a surcharge of $5,000 to $20,000 if their vehicle emits carbon more than or equal to 211g/km.
Any additional amount paid on top of the points above - Overheads, road tax, In-Vehicle Unit fee (IU), vehicle number plate fee, sales commision, profits for dealer etc.
To have a better look at the picture, two examples of a cost breakdown of the factors listed above will be shown on the next page.
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Slowing global economy set to impact earnings, Banking News & Top Stories - The Straits Times
Slowing global economy set to impact earnings, Banking News & Top Stories - The Straits Times: "Some potential takeover targets include Ezion Holdings, Dyna-Mac as well as Ezra Holdings firms such as Triyards Holdings and Emas Offshore. Firms with high cash hoards, such as Baker Technology and Tanjung Offshore, are possible privatisation candidates, said DBS."
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Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Monday, October 12, 2015
What technical analysts are watching after last week’s big market rally - MarketWatch
What technical analysts are watching after last week’s big market rally - MarketWatch: "“The obvious theme since the September low has been mean reversion,” says Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, in a note Sunday. He says the best-performing industry groups since Sept. 28 have included energy, materials and automotive-related companies. “In other words, the laggards have led the rally,” he writes.
Krinsky suggests that sitting on the sidelines is the better option for investors, rather than buying after the recent advance. “With some extreme overbought readings and the SPX once again coming into overhead resistance in the 2040-2060 range, we think patience will be rewarded over chasing strength,” he says."
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Krinsky suggests that sitting on the sidelines is the better option for investors, rather than buying after the recent advance. “With some extreme overbought readings and the SPX once again coming into overhead resistance in the 2040-2060 range, we think patience will be rewarded over chasing strength,” he says."
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OPEC strategy working as non-OPEC supply falls
OPEC strategy working as non-OPEC supply falls: "Supply from oil producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is set to fall further in spite of a rise in global oil demand, the organization said in its monthly report Monday, adding that it was in the best position to mop up an increase in demand.
In OPEC's October report, the 12-country producer group led by Saudi Arabia predicted world oil demand growth in 2015 to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), up around 40,000 barrels a day on the previous estimate."
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In OPEC's October report, the 12-country producer group led by Saudi Arabia predicted world oil demand growth in 2015 to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), up around 40,000 barrels a day on the previous estimate."
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PayPal to introduce Japanese e-commerce sites to Chinese consumers｜WCT
PayPal to introduce Japanese e-commerce sites to Chinese consumers｜WCT: "US online payment service provider PayPal is to team up with China's bank card issuer UnionPay and major banks introducing Japanese e-commerce platforms to Chinese consumers and expanding its online payment service, the tech news portal of China's Global Times reports.
Starting from late October, PayPal will guide Chinese consumers to Japanese e-commerce sites through its own promotion website as well as placing advertisements in the member sites of China UnionPay, which has issued 5 billion credit cards in China and major Chinese banks such as the China Construction Bank, which has 50 million credit card holders.
Those Japanese e-commerce sites will include Nissen, Buyee's subsidiary Tenso, which provides forwarding service shipping Japanese products from shopping websites internationally."
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Starting from late October, PayPal will guide Chinese consumers to Japanese e-commerce sites through its own promotion website as well as placing advertisements in the member sites of China UnionPay, which has issued 5 billion credit cards in China and major Chinese banks such as the China Construction Bank, which has 50 million credit card holders.
Those Japanese e-commerce sites will include Nissen, Buyee's subsidiary Tenso, which provides forwarding service shipping Japanese products from shopping websites internationally."
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Sunday, October 11, 2015
Asia stocks set for weaker start, ASX to break win streak, Nikkei closed
Asia stocks set for weaker start, ASX to break win streak, Nikkei closed: "China's share markets widened gains early Monday, with the Shanghai Composite rising more than 3 percent, following a report by the China Securities Journal that quoted a senior central banker saying that the country's stock market correction is "almost over."
Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) told an annual meeting of the International Monetary Fun (IMF) and World Bank in Peru that the corrections in the mainland's equity market have had limited impact on the world's second-biggest economy as Beijing has taken a series of measures to avoid systemic risks, Reuters reported.
Hopes of further stimulus when the government convenes later this month to discuss the 13th five-year plan.also boosted sentiment."
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Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) told an annual meeting of the International Monetary Fun (IMF) and World Bank in Peru that the corrections in the mainland's equity market have had limited impact on the world's second-biggest economy as Beijing has taken a series of measures to avoid systemic risks, Reuters reported.
Hopes of further stimulus when the government convenes later this month to discuss the 13th five-year plan.also boosted sentiment."
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Bad Economic News Has Been Good for Precious-Metals Investors - Bloomberg Business
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Putin's Syria strikes are a long-term play for higher oil prices | World news | The Guardian
Putin's Syria strikes are a long-term play for higher oil prices | World news | The Guardian: "Of course Russia will also target Islamic State. The territory currently held by Isis contains important oil assets and Putin will be eager to bring these under his control. He can then play the “godfather”, dispensing cheap oil from previously Isis-held areas to his allies in the region.
Which brings us back to his primary aim. The more he can entrench himself in the Middle East, the more he can exert control over energy markets. With Iran and Iraq in his sphere he can begin to force Europe to rely on him again for supplies.
Prolonged war in the Middle East would serve Putin’s interests perfectly. The deeper and more widespread the conflict, the more world oil and gas prices are likely to rise, helping him stage an economic recovery at home and render the sanctions useless.
Ushering in better times at home is therefore Putin’s ultimate aim as he seeks to prop up a system that takes advantage of people’s patriotism and public spirit. The grand plan is for his vital oil and gas revenues to recover so he can buy the loyalty of Russia’s 140 million-strong population.
Alexander Temerko is a Ukrainian-born British businessman in the oil industry and donor to the Tory party"
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Which brings us back to his primary aim. The more he can entrench himself in the Middle East, the more he can exert control over energy markets. With Iran and Iraq in his sphere he can begin to force Europe to rely on him again for supplies.
Prolonged war in the Middle East would serve Putin’s interests perfectly. The deeper and more widespread the conflict, the more world oil and gas prices are likely to rise, helping him stage an economic recovery at home and render the sanctions useless.
Ushering in better times at home is therefore Putin’s ultimate aim as he seeks to prop up a system that takes advantage of people’s patriotism and public spirit. The grand plan is for his vital oil and gas revenues to recover so he can buy the loyalty of Russia’s 140 million-strong population.
Alexander Temerko is a Ukrainian-born British businessman in the oil industry and donor to the Tory party"
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Friday, October 9, 2015
Is the oil rally real?-—commentary
Is the oil rally real?-—commentary: "According to China Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals, China's gasoline and jet-fuel demand were both up more than 20 percent in July from a year earlier, and crude demand was up more than 6 percent. At the same time, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reports auto sales for August fell by 3.4 percent year on year. What's the right interpretation? Are we to conclude that China has a hot economy, or is it sliding into some kind of recession? "
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Oil industry leaders already warning of future oil price spike | News OK
Oil industry leaders already warning of future oil price spike | News OK: "Domestic oil companies late last year slashed their drilling budgets and mothballed more than half the country's rigs. Low oil prices have made many projects uneconomic, forcing companies to delay drilling plans.
For several months, though, oil production continued to grow, both because it takes time for new wells to drop in production and because companies dropped the least profitable drilling prospects, focusing instead on the most promising, highest-producing wells. Companies also have spent the past year improving their processes, allowing them to increase production per well while reducing expenses.
Still, the more than 50 percent reduction in drilling activity was guaranteed to eventually lead to a drop in production. We're starting to see it now.
Domestic production in September was down 514,000 barrels per day from the 40-year high set in June.
International flavor
Low oil prices have led to drilling reductions and delays worldwide.
Speaking at the Oil and Money conference in London this week, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said global oil and natural gas investment is at least 20 percent less than one year ago. He said the year-over-year drop is the largest in history.
Abdalla El Badri, secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said global oil investment has dropped by about $650 billion this year.
“I am very concerned about investment,” he said. “I'm not happy at all. It means less supply in the future. Less supply means higher costs in the future.”
Higher prices would be welcome throughout the global oil industry, but only to a point. If energy prices climb too much, demand could tumble and economies could be forced into recession."
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For several months, though, oil production continued to grow, both because it takes time for new wells to drop in production and because companies dropped the least profitable drilling prospects, focusing instead on the most promising, highest-producing wells. Companies also have spent the past year improving their processes, allowing them to increase production per well while reducing expenses.
Still, the more than 50 percent reduction in drilling activity was guaranteed to eventually lead to a drop in production. We're starting to see it now.
Domestic production in September was down 514,000 barrels per day from the 40-year high set in June.
International flavor
Low oil prices have led to drilling reductions and delays worldwide.
Speaking at the Oil and Money conference in London this week, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said global oil and natural gas investment is at least 20 percent less than one year ago. He said the year-over-year drop is the largest in history.
Abdalla El Badri, secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said global oil investment has dropped by about $650 billion this year.
“I am very concerned about investment,” he said. “I'm not happy at all. It means less supply in the future. Less supply means higher costs in the future.”
Higher prices would be welcome throughout the global oil industry, but only to a point. If energy prices climb too much, demand could tumble and economies could be forced into recession."
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Worst of commodity crunch is over as oil price rebounds, Pimco says
Worst of commodity crunch is over as oil price rebounds, Pimco says: "Oil may rise to a "baseline" of about $US60 a barrel in one year's time as the impact of supply cuts becomes more evident from early 2016, according to Sharenow. US crude output is down about 440,000 barrels a day from a four-decade high of 9.61 million barrels in June and the nation's drillers have sidelined more than half of the country's rigs in the last year.
Benchmark crude in London and New York tumbled to six-year lows in August and weaker prices are having a "significant impact on forward production growth," said Sharenow. Factor in natural decline rates and it means the oil market can re-balance supply and demand faster than other sectors like steel or aluminium, he said. West Texas Intermediate was at $US48.05 a barrel on Thursday while Brent was at $US51.71.
Platinum attractive
Gold prices are "broadly fair at the moment," said Johnson. "If real yields move lower or the Fed delays rate hikes beyond market expectations, we would expect gold to do well." The probability that the Federal Reserve will increase rates this year has dropped to 39 per cent, from 77 per cent at the end of August, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. Spot bullion has rebounded about 6 per cent after sliding to a five- year low in July and was at $US1144 an ounce.
Silver and platinum, which have declined on weaker industrial demand and slower emerging market growth, are both attractive at current prices and trading at multi-year lows relative to gold, Johnson said. Platinum this month touched the weakest in almost seven years, while silver fell in August to its lowest since 2009."
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Benchmark crude in London and New York tumbled to six-year lows in August and weaker prices are having a "significant impact on forward production growth," said Sharenow. Factor in natural decline rates and it means the oil market can re-balance supply and demand faster than other sectors like steel or aluminium, he said. West Texas Intermediate was at $US48.05 a barrel on Thursday while Brent was at $US51.71.
Platinum attractive
Gold prices are "broadly fair at the moment," said Johnson. "If real yields move lower or the Fed delays rate hikes beyond market expectations, we would expect gold to do well." The probability that the Federal Reserve will increase rates this year has dropped to 39 per cent, from 77 per cent at the end of August, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. Spot bullion has rebounded about 6 per cent after sliding to a five- year low in July and was at $US1144 an ounce.
Silver and platinum, which have declined on weaker industrial demand and slower emerging market growth, are both attractive at current prices and trading at multi-year lows relative to gold, Johnson said. Platinum this month touched the weakest in almost seven years, while silver fell in August to its lowest since 2009."
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