Mt. Gox falls, but China is seeing a bitcoin 'gold rush' - The Tell - MarketWatch

Mt. Gox falls, but China is seeing a bitcoin 'gold rush' - The Tell - MarketWatch: "On Friday, while fans in Hong Kong embraced the opening of the first bitcoin retail store by ANXBTC exchange in the city, Beijing-based Huobi.com, China’s largest bitcoin exchange, saw its daily trading volume surge to 69% of the world’s total trading volume. This made Huobi the largest trading platform in the world by volume, according to latest statistics of Bitcoinity, a bitcoin rate tracking service site."
“Many people here think the bitcoin is undervalued, and rush to buy the currency,” Hugh Madden, CTO of ANXBTC, told MarketWatch “this is partly why we set up the first bitcoin retail store in the city.”


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China Factory Index Decline Adds to Li’s Growth Headwinds - Bloomberg

China Factory Index Decline Adds to Li’s Growth Headwinds - Bloomberg:



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What investors need to know about Ukraine - Market Extra - MarketWatch

What investors need to know about Ukraine - Market Extra - MarketWatch: "“Should there be a serious confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine, political risk premiums would rise in Russia and in Europe and would likely lead to a general pullback in global equity markets,” said Bill Witherell, chief global economist at Cumberland Advisors, in a note.

But without a big showdown, Ukraine has only “limited potential to deliver a negative surprise sufficient to produce financial contagion in markets,” he wrote."



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How history explains bitcoin, Mt. Gox bankruptcy - Chuck Jaffe - MarketWatch

How history explains bitcoin, Mt. Gox bankruptcy - Chuck Jaffe - MarketWatch: "Oh, in practice that’s not right. The prices for all cryptocurrencies went tumbling this week with the evaporation of Mt. Gox; the largest bitcoin exchange vanished amid swirling troubles, acknowledging bitcoin losses of roughly $475 million, then resurfaced to declare bankruptcy in a Tokyo court."

Because tulips had potential profit built in—each bulb could be the progenitor for future generations of flowers and additional bulbs—the price obviously got to where it had no basis in reality; when Dutch government officials stepped in to calm the market—believing the wild speculation could hurt the entire economy—tulip merchants decided they needed to protect their profits, starting a selling frenzy.



In a matter of days, the tulip market was pretty much gone.

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Commentary: Bitcoin mania worse than tulip craze - Xinhua | English.news.cn

Commentary: Bitcoin mania worse than tulip craze - Xinhua | English.news.cn:
Adding to the woes of global buyers, the chief executive of a Singapore-based trading website, First Meta, committed suicide for reasons not yet known.

"However, the mania around bitcoin looks even worse than the Dutch tulip bubble that peaked in 1637, when tulip bulb prices skyrocketed before suddenly collapsing.

The tulip speculation, although irrational, at least had a concrete target product with some value. In contrast, bitcoin may end up to be nothing but some digital symbols.

With no government, organization or person claiming to be responsible for its security, the much-hyped bitcoin is simply a test field for the Greater Fool Theory, in which a participant assumes he or she can sell it later to a "greater fool.""

It is about time for speculators to see through the illusions of bitcoin and refrain from falling into any potential money-making scheme set by others.

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Shorts pile on as S&P flirts with its 48th record in the past year - Need to Know - MarketWatch

Shorts pile on as S&P flirts with its 48th record in the past year - Need to Know - MarketWatch: "But that recent strength is a bit misleading. Only 6% of all S&P 500 stocks closed at or near their 52-week highs, showing that this breakout has been “relatively half-hearted,” according to Chris Weston of IG Markets.

He added that 78% of the S&P components are trading above their 200-day moving average, which isn’t nearly as many as when the year started. Don’t let that stop you."



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Yuan set for its biggest weekly loss in history

Yuan set for its biggest weekly loss in history:



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Yuan set for its biggest weekly loss in history

Yuan set for its biggest weekly loss in history:



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Warren Buffett on why a bull market is like sex

Warren Buffett on why a bull market is like sex: "In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders to be released Saturday, he writes about how nonprofessional investors shouldn't get distracted by constantly changing stock prices and instead buy stocks of companies that will be profitable over the long run."



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ARA Asset Management's Q4 profit rises 25% | AsiaOne Business

ARA Asset Management's Q4 profit rises 25% | AsiaOne Business:

Dennis Chan

The Straits Times

Sunday, Feb 23, 2014

ARA Asset Management, which manages real estate investment trusts (Reit) and private real estate funds, has posted a 25 per cent rise in fourth-quarter net profit to $22.1 million.



Revenue for the three months to Dec 31 was up 19 per cent at $43.8 million. For the full year, net earnings inched up by 2 per cent to $74.3 million on the back of a 5 per cent rise in revenue to $140.4 million.



Recurrent management fees went up by 11 per cent to $114 million, driven mainly by higher Reit management fees and real estate management fees. Reit management fees increased due to the improved asset performance post asset enhancement initiatives which have resulted in higher property valuations of the Reit portfolios under management, as well as higher fees arising from acquisitions made by Fortune Reit, Suntec Reit and Cache Logistics Trust.



Real estate management fees rose due to higher leasing commission recognised by APM from the re-making of Suntec City, and contributions from the Asia Property Management (China) group of companies subsequent to its acquisition in August 2012.



The group's acquisition, divestment and performance fees grew by 78 per cent to $14.7 million, driven mainly by Fortune Reit's acquisition of Fortune Kingswood and Suntec Reit's progress payment for its acquisition of 177 Pacific Highway in North Sydney, Australia in the fourth quarter.



Excluding unrealised marked- to-market adjustments, the group would have achieved a net profit of $81.4 million for the full year, 28 per cent higher than in 2012. Quarterly earnings per share increased to 2.62 cents from 2.3 cents previously while net asset value per share climbed by 1.04 cents to 32.84 cents. ARA's assets under management hit a record $25.5 billion as at year-end.



An unchanged final dividend of 2.7 cents a share was proposed.



dennis@sph.com.sg

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Rare BMWs on the auction block - Slide Show - MarketWatch

Rare BMWs on the auction block - Slide Show - MarketWatch:



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'I had a farm in Omaha': Warren Buffett dishes out investment advice - The Tell - MarketWatch

'I had a farm in Omaha': Warren Buffett dishes out investment advice - The Tell - MarketWatch:

Here are the five lessons he says the average investor can learn from these two simple investments:



You don’t have to be an expert to achieve satisfactory investment returns. Recognize your limitations, keep things simple and “don’t swing for the fences.” Don’t believe in or look for a quick profit.

Focus on the future productivity of the assets you are considering. Unless you can make a rough estimate of its future earnings, move on. You can’t evaluate everything, but you have to understand the actions you’re going take.

Avoid speculation, such as focusing on the prospective price change of an asset. “Half of all coin-flippers will win their first toss; none of those winners has an expectation of profit if he continues to play the game,” says the Sage.

Think about what that asset will produce, not about daily valuations. “Games are won by players who focus on the playing field — not by those whose eyes to the scoreboard,” says Buffett.

“Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time” and even “dangerous, because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important,” he says.

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Rolls-Royce Drone Ships Challenge $375 Billion Industry: Freight - Bloomberg

Rolls-Royce Drone Ships Challenge $375 Billion Industry: Freight - Bloomberg: "The company’s schematics show vessels loaded with containers from front to back, without the bridge structure where the crew lives. By replacing the bridge -- along with the other systems that support the crew, such as electricity, air conditioning, water and sewage -- with more cargo, ships can cut costs and boost revenue, Levander said. The ships would be 5 percent lighter before loading cargo and would burn 12 percent to 15 percent less fuel, he said."



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Berkshire Hathaway's 15 Biggest Stock Holdings

Berkshire Hathaway's 15 Biggest Stock Holdings:



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Warren Buffett's three 'fundamentals of investing'

Warren Buffett's three 'fundamentals of investing': ""With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field—not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard."

He warns against "letting the capricious and irrational behavior" of stock prices make an investor "behave irrationally as well."

In addition, Buffett argues, "Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time."

He also urges timid or beginning investors against going into stocks "at a time of extreme exuberance" and becoming "disillusioned when paper losses occur."



"The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs."



His bottom line fundamental advice: "Ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm."

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The most important indicator in the world right now: The yen

The most important indicator in the world right now: The yen: "When traders want to know which way stocks are headed, they look to the Japanese yen.

Top strategists on Wall Street say the yen is set to weaken a lot further this year, and that should be a bullish sign for stocks, even with the S&P at record heights."



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Profits and Dividends Grow At ARA Asset Management Limited | The Motley Fool

Profits and Dividends Grow At ARA Asset Management Limited | The Motley Fool:

“We are pleased to have achieved another year of strong results, particularly in the growth of our recurrent management fees and recurrent net profit by 11% and 17% respectively. Notwithstanding the persistent global economic uncertainties, we continued to grow our resilient earnings and increase our AUM…We continue to be focused in employing a prudent and disciplined approach towards building a sustainable growth for the Group. Moving forward, ARA is well-positioned to pursue further growth opportunities, as the combined partnership of Cheung Kong and Straits Trading, both well-reputed as premier business groups in Asia, will underpin our expanded business network reach in the Asia-Pacific region.”



Based on the full year EPS of 8.79 Singapore cents, ARA’s currently selling for 20 times trailing earnings. If recurrent net profit was used to value the company, its shares would sport a historical price-to-earnings ratio of 26 instead.

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China home prices rise 9.6% in January from year ago

China home prices rise 9.6% in January from year ago: "The growth in China's home prices decelerated across cities in January for the first time in 14 months, raising the likelihood of a correction in sales and construction activity going forward and sparking concerns of a "rocky quarter ahead.""



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Crash of 2014: Like 1929, you’ll never hear it coming - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

Crash of 2014: Like 1929, you’ll never hear it coming - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch:
How to predict a crash? The secret is programmed in your brain, your genes, your psychological personality profile. You’ll do what you always do. Look within. You’ll keep playing your own version of musical chairs, either naturally bullish or naturally bearish, timing your exit strategy to suit your risk tolerance, your judgments, your beliefs, biases, ideologies, not the data.

"But when the Mack truck suddenly shifts into high gear ... accelerating rapidly ... finally catching all of us by surprise... none of this will matter ... you’ll never hear it coming ... till too late ... few did in 1929, in spite of all the warnings ... you didn’t hear in 2000 ... nor in 2008 ... nobody will in 2014 ... the Mack truck will finally catch all by surprise, once again."



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Singapore May Ease Curbs If Prices Drop 10%, CapitaLand Says - Bloomberg

Singapore May Ease Curbs If Prices Drop 10%, CapitaLand Says - Bloomberg:



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Get ready for more China shadow-banking defaults

Get ready for more China shadow-banking defaults:



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Tower just the tip of Leighton's Asia aims | The Australian

Tower just the tip of Leighton's Asia aims | The Australian:



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ComfortDelgro posts record $263m profit | AsiaOne Ride

ComfortDelgro posts record $263m profit | AsiaOne Ride:



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SMRT to go on doing all it can to avoid delays: CEO

SMRT to go on doing all it can to avoid delays: CEO:



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SMRT ranked among better rail operators in international standards - Channel NewsAsia

SMRT ranked among better rail operators in international standards - Channel NewsAsia:



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Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion - The Tell - MarketWatch

Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion - The Tell - MarketWatch: "It was Soros himself who famously once said: “I rely a great deal on animal instincts.” And as we all know, George’s made some big, crazy, winning bets in the past."



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Do rising Singapore bankruptcies signal trouble ahead?

Do rising Singapore bankruptcies signal trouble ahead?: "Singapore's household debt-to-income ratio has risen to 2.1 times in 2012 from a low of around 1.9 times in 2008 during the Lehman crisis, according to data in the annual financial stability review, released by the city-state's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, in December."



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Warren Buffett is laughing at you for selling - MarketWatch

Warren Buffett is laughing at you for selling - MarketWatch:

I'm going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah Chorus' in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it's the same with everything in life they will be buying — except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore."

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Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch:



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A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI): SMRT: Breaking every support.

A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI): SMRT: Breaking every support.:



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A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI): SMRT: Breaking every support.

A Singaporean Stockmarket Investor (ASSI): SMRT: Breaking every support.:



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More woes at SMRT Corporation | The Motley Fool

More woes at SMRT Corporation | The Motley Fool: "SMRT’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr Desmond Kuek, said: “Our fare business continues to face cost pressures arising from ongoing efforts to meet heightened demands on service, reliability and capacity. The impact of rising costs will be mitigated partially next year by the recently approved fare adjustments, and our continuing efforts to drive higher productivity and cost efficiency. We are engaging the authorities on a timely transition to a viable and sustainable model for the Trains and Bus businesses. We will continue to leverage on SMRT’s core engineering competency and commercial expertise to support business expansion in both fare and non-fare businesses. Sportshub is expected to commence operations within the next few months and we will continue to explore rail business opportunities overseas.”"



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How to invest like a cockroach - Brett Arends's ROI - MarketWatch

How to invest like a cockroach - Brett Arends's ROI - MarketWatch:

To put it in a nutshell, Grice has advice for all of us: Don’t be a cat on a hot tin roof…be a cockroach.



Say what?



“Cockroaches get bad press,” Grice wrote in his research paper (“Cockroaches for the Long Run,” SG Securities, November 2012). “They’re pests. We don’t want them in our houses. Mainly, we want to kill them.” But, Grice added, cockroaches have one remarkable and underappreciated feature.



They’re survivors. And how.



They’ve been around for 350 million years—which means they have so far survived 7,000 times longer than the human race. They’ve outlasted the dinosaurs, and millions of other species. They’ve survived three of the five “mass extinctions” that have swept the planet, each of which wiped out about three-quarters of the other species. “They can go without air for 45 minutes, survive submerged underwater for half an hour, survive freezing temperatures and withstand 15 times more radiation than humans.”



No, they are not clever or inventive. But as Grice notes, cockroaches can survive a nuclear blast--even if they can’t build a nuclear bomb.



Grice’s cockroach is a portfolio divided into four equal parts: Stocks, bonds, cash (i.e. deposits or Treasury bills), and gold bullion.

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Junk Yield Premiums Soar on China’s Looming First Default - Bloomberg

Junk Yield Premiums Soar on China’s Looming First Default - Bloomberg:



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Stocks are in 'V-shaped reversal' as correction ends: Auerbach's Ross - The Tell - MarketWatch

Stocks are in 'V-shaped reversal' as correction ends: Auerbach's Ross - The Tell - MarketWatch:



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Fund investors drop stocks for bonds in record numbers

Fund investors drop stocks for bonds in record numbers: "This time last year, traders were talking about a "great rotation" from bonds into equities. For a few short weeks in January, it all seemed to be going to plan, with stellar stock gains starting in earnest. However, it now appears this January was all about a rotation of the rotation with stocks in retreat and record outflows from equity fund investors"



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Albert Edwards: Markets face Freddie Kruger-like nightmare

Albert Edwards: Markets face Freddie Kruger-like nightmare: "It's not the first time that Edwards has made bearish predictions on stocks. In September 2012, Edwards said the U.S. had already entered a recession and it wouldn't be long before the equity market reacts. He also warned about the "ultimate" death cross for the S&P 500 – where the 50-month moving average falls below the 200-month moving average. Since that call the S&P 500 has risen around 26 percent."



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More global stock markets enter correction - Slide Show - MarketWatch

More global stock markets enter correction - Slide Show - MarketWatch:



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Why the Dow Theory is still on a ‘buy’ signal - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

Why the Dow Theory is still on a ‘buy’ signal - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch:



"Step No.1: Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.03%  and the Dow Jones Transportation DJT -0.83%  must undergo a significant correction from joint new highs.



 Step No. 2: In their subsequent significant rally attempt following that correction, either one or both of these Dow averages must fail to rise above their pre-correction highs.



 Step No. 3: Both averages must then drop below their respective correction low."



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Counting the costs of a global epidemic

Counting the costs of a global epidemic: "Swiftness of action is also essential. When SARS struck, there was criticism of China's delayed response and allegations of a cover up. But the country's reaction in 2013 to H7N9, a new form of avian flu, has been praised: bird markets were shut, and poultry was culled. Just last month authorities in Hong Kong destroyed 20,000 chickens after H7N9 was found in poultry from mainland China."



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Stand by: EM turmoil sparks credit crunch fears

Stand by: EM turmoil sparks credit crunch fears:

Alberto Gallo, who heads European macroeconomic credit research at RBS, said the outflows were indicators that two major emerging market economies, Brazil and China, were already in the early stages of a credit crunch. Banks create a credit crunch when they become more cautious to lend out and push up the cost of borrowing, making it harder and harder for companies to borrow to grow their businesses. A credit crunch is normally a sure sign a country's economy is heading into stormy waters.

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Dow Braces for One-Day 1,000 Drop, as Markets Plunge - ExxonMobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) - 24/7 Wall St.

Dow Braces for One-Day 1,000 Drop, as Markets Plunge - ExxonMobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) - 24/7 Wall St.: "The DJIA has a tradition of plunging on bad news. It sold off 7.9% on October 15, 2008, a single day during the financial crisis in 2008. More than once during that panic, it dropped more than 7%. Nearly as recently, on October 19, 1987, the DJIA dropped 22.6%. The cause was not extraordinary. The economy was in recession and investors rushed for the exits once it became clear that day’s trading would be terrible."



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Chart points to watch: S&P 500 1,708 and Dow's 200-day line - The Tell - MarketWatch

Chart points to watch: S&P 500 1,708 and Dow's 200-day line - The Tell - MarketWatch: "“In theory, a move to 1750 that breaks a 14-month trend-line should lead to even further deterioration,” Krinsky wrote in a note today. But he adds his team “could envision a scenario where SPX pushes down to 1750, ‘breaks’ the trend-line, only to reverse higher.”"



Dow could stabilize: The Dow DJIA -2.08%  on Monday has been testing its 200-day moving average around 15,470. MKM’s Krinksy has suggested that actually could bring some stability.



“Note that in the October 2013 correction, the INDU was the only major index to test its 200 DMA, and that marked the low for the correction on Oct. 9th,” he writes.



“Therefore, if we see further weakness into February, we would look for the INDU to be the first index to stabilize as it tests the 200 DMA.”



–Victor Reklaitis

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Marc Faber: Market volatility will continue, here's why

Marc Faber: Market volatility will continue, here's why: ""Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.""



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How bad will the Nikkei meltdown get?

How bad will the Nikkei meltdown get?: "Last week, Japan reported a 1.3 percent on-year rise in its nationwide core consumer price index (CPI) for the month of December, a sign that the economy is making progress on ending years of deflation.

"And at the end of the day it is money that makes the world go round, not regulatory policy," Koll added."

"Japanese stocks have been hit hard in the last few days mostly because the concerns about emerging markets have led to a flight to quality which has strengthened the yen," he said.

"I think the long-term direction of yen is down and that [Japanese stocks] is one place where we would recommend buying on weakness," he added.

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Copper's swoon - Bad omen for China?

Copper's swoon - Bad omen for China?:



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U.S. stocks see worst selloff in several months - Market Snapshot - MarketWatch

U.S. stocks see worst selloff in several months - Market Snapshot - MarketWatch:



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Are markets headed for a perfect storm?

Are markets headed for a perfect storm?: ""The risk of a hard-landing of the Chinese economy is not negligible," the bank said. "The most likely trigger is that Beijing's gradual deleveraging plan gets out of control, which would lead to shadow banking failures, a liquidity crunch and financial market turmoil."

While it believes the drop in China's official manufacturing PMI to a six-month low in January was partly due to the Lunar New Year holiday, "it is getting clearer that the economic slowdown has begun again.""



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Germany must use military more, says president

Germany must use military more, says president:



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